In recent months, the commercial vehicle market in China has exhibited signs of weakness, according to the latest data released by the China Association of Automobile ManufacturersThe production and sales of commercial vehicles for November reached approximately 327,000 units and 315,000 units, respectivelyAlthough these figures indicate a growth of 12.8% and 5.6% compared to the previous month, year-on-year comparisons reveal a decline of 15.7% in production and 13.9% in salesOver the first eleven months of the year, total output dropped by 6.2% to 3.444 million units, while sales fell by 4.4% to 3.505 million unitsSuch statistics highlight the ongoing challenges facing the domestic market.

Contrastingly, the scenario within the export sector has proven to be markedly optimisticWith domestic sales of commercial vehicles plummeting by 9.9% to just 2.679 million units during the same period, the sector's export volume has soared

China exported approximately 826,000 commercial vehicles from January to November, which is a substantial increase of 19.3%. Key players in the truck manufacturing industry, such as China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, FAW Jiefang, Shaanxi Automobile Group, and Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle, have all reported export growth of over 3%. Meanwhile, bus manufacturers like BYD, Yutong, Golden Dragon, and Zhongtong have also shown significant increases in their export figures.

As commercial vehicle manufacturers grapple with domestic market fluctuations, there is a palpable shift in focus towards international marketsLiu Yinping, the deputy general manager of Dongfeng Motor Company in Shenzhen, voiced a compelling call to action at the China Commercial Vehicle Forum in 2024, emphasizing, “If we don’t go overseas, we risk being left behind.” Analysts from CITIC Securities have echoed this sentiment, asserting that Chinese commercial vehicle manufacturers have begun to establish a foothold in global markets, showcasing improvements in manufacturing, quality control, and after-sales services

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Moreover, with the rise of the new energy vehicle segment, these companies are positioned to leverage a competitive edge around the worldGiven that profit margins from exports are substantially higher than those from domestic sales, major firms in the industry are poised for significant profit recovery and growth potential.

The urgency to capitalize on overseas markets has become an annual focal point in the commercial vehicle sectorFor instance, during FAW Jiefang’s “2025 Global Partner+ Conference,” the company highlighted its status as the industry leader in annual average growth in overseas markets over the past four yearsLooking ahead, FAW Jiefang anticipates total sales of approximately 260,000 units in 2024, with more than 60,000 units earmarked for exportThe target for 2025 aims to challenge a total of 330,000 units, including 80,000 from international sales

By 2030, the goal expands dramatically, aiming for over 500,000 units globally, with around 180,000 expected to be shipped overseas, representing 36% of total sales.

Other notable players benefiting from international markets include China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Foton MotorsAt the 2025 Partners Conference, China National Heavy Duty Truck projected a robust export figure of 135,000 heavy trucks in 2024, an increase of 4%. The company's anticipated export revenue for the same year stands at 45.1 billion yuan, a 5% rise compared to previous periodsMarkets in Saudi Arabia, Australia, Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia are showing remarkable sales growth, alongside maintaining top positions regionally.

Foton Motors has similarly affirmed its leadership in the commercial vehicle sector, with its overseas export volumes ranking first among peersThe company attributes this success to a long-term commitment to internationalization as a core strategy, culminating in 20 years of overseas development that spans over 130 countries and regions

As of November, the company surpassed a cumulative export volume of one million unitsBy 2030, Foton projects its overseas sales to hit 300,000 units, with new energy vehicles comprising 30% of this target.

The current journey from the domestic market to the international stage correlates closely with the broader economic landscape, notably the slowdown in real estate development in ChinaXie Guoping, the deputy director of the Resource and Data Department of the National Information Center, emphasized that the sluggish domestic demand is primarily due to two factors: the overall slowdown of macroeconomic growth leading to insufficient effective demand, and significant policy overreaching from prior years, resulting in surplus capacity within the industryIn her analysis, she noted that the decline in consumer transport demand since the pandemic and the retreat in retail growth compared to pre-pandemic times have further exacerbated these challenges.

Additionally, the implementation of the Sixth National Emission Standards since July 1, 2021, has ushered the commercial vehicle market into a “period of staged decline.” From January to November this year, domestic demand for commercial vehicles declined by 10%, contributing to a notably subdued atmosphere in this segment

Conversely, demand for commercial vehicles in international markets has displayed remarkable potential for growth, indicating a clear divergence from the domestic downturn.

According to figures released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the past three years have seen sustained high growth in commercial vehicle exports, reaching 770,000 units last year aloneAmong these, heavy and medium-duty trucks contributed approximately 300,000 units, while light trucks comprised around 330,000 unitsXu Changming, a senior economist at the National Information Center, pointed to three primary reasons driving this export surge: the pandemic hampered production capacities in other countries, enhancing opportunities for Chinese products; marked improvements in the competitiveness of Chinese commercial vehicle offerings; and escalated competition in the domestic market prompting companies to prioritize export strategies.

Furthermore, commercial vehicle exports are particularly promising in relation to the Belt and Road Initiative, where extensive infrastructure development presents lucrative chances for Chinese manufacturers to participate in diverse construction projects

Xie noted that such export opportunities not only drive growth for the sector but also align closely with large-scale infrastructure requirements across emerging economies.

An additional catalyst for growth in the export sector is the rise of new energy vehicles within the commercial vehicle domainData from the China Bus Statistics Information Network reports that November saw the export of 1,105 new energy buses over 3.5 meters in length, marking a year-on-year increase of 25.85%. In particular, BYD led the charge among new energy bus exports, selling around 437 units—a remarkable growth rate of nearly 50%—and commanding close to 40% of the marketYutong and King Long followed suit, showcasing incredible growth figures and strengthening their market shares significantly.

For the period from January to September this year, BYD topped the list for new energy bus exports, recording over 2,400 units sold

Tian Chulong, general manager of BYD's commercial vehicle division, emphasized that factors such as technological advantages, independent supply chains, and short delivery timelines have spurred rapid growth in demand for BYD's electric buses across European marketsCountries like Europe, the U.S., and Japan are experiencing notable upticks, with BYD’s market share surpassing 10%. For competitive players such as Yutong, cumulative global sales of new energy buses have exceeded 180,000 units, covering over 10% of the large and medium bus market.

Encouragingly, new energy commercial vehicles are not only maintaining impressive growth rates abroad—they are similarly experiencing a boom in the domestic sectorData indicates that for the first three quarters of this year, sales of commercial vehicles in China totaled 2.89 million units, with new energy vehicles demonstrating standout results

Sales of new energy light trucks reached an impressive 64,000 units, marking a market penetration rate exceeding 15%. Furthermore, new energy heavy trucks recorded sales of approximately 48,500 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 143% and achieving a market penetration rate of over 11%. Projections suggest that by year-end, yearly sales for new energy light trucks will surpass 100,000 units, corresponding to an 18% market penetration; heavy truck global sales are also on track to exceed 75,000 units, with market penetration hovering around 13%.

In light of this transformative landscape, several traditional automobile companies, including GAC Commercial Vehicles and Changan Kaicheng, have begun restructuring their business strategies to align with the burgeoning demand for new energy commercial vehiclesChangan Kaicheng has announced plans to transition exclusively into new energy commercial vehicle production by 2025, with aspirations to launch more than six new energy models in the upcoming three years